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Archive for September, 2013

MarketView – September 11, 2013

Sept 11 chart

Market Drivers:

• The expectation (based on average trade guesses) that the USDA will reduce its US corn and soybean yield forecasts in tomorrow’s (Thursday) WASE report
• The expectation (based on average trade guesses) that the USDA will reduce its World and US corn and soybean stocks in tomorrow’s (Thursday) WASE report
• Concern of the impact an early frost would have on crop yield – gets less as time moves closer to harvest
• A widely variable U.S. crop

Great Lakes Grain, AGRIS Co-operative, FS PARTNERS Crop Assessment Tour Report• Estimated this year’s average corn yield across the southwest and central part of Ontario at 160.8 bushels/acre and the soybean yield at 45.6 bushels/acre
• This compares to last month’s Statistics Canada projections of 154.8 bushels/acre for corn and 43 bushels for soybeans for the whole province as opposed to the regions assessed by Great Lakes Grain
• Check out the report at http://aghost.net/images/e0015001/GreatLakesGrain2013CropAssessmentTourSummarySeptember102013.pdf
• Provides more detailed yield information and crop conditions observed during the tour held from September 3rd to 6th

Sept 11 graph

The above graph is based on weekly average Huron FOB Farm corn market prices:

  • It compares old crop corn (2012-2013) being sold out of storage (blue bars) with new crop corn (2013-2014) that will be harvested this fall (red line)
  • The time period shown for each crop year is a two year period from pre-plant, growing season, harvest and storage
  • The old crop corn is from October 2011 to September 2013 and the new crop corn is from October 2012 to September 2014

Disclaimer: This commentary is provided for information only and is not intended as advice

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MarketView – September 4, 2013

Sept 4 table

Market Drivers:
• Weather varying from hot and dry to cool and wet
• USDA’s lower yield estimates for new crop in the August WASDE report (next report out September 12th)
• Concern of the impact an early frost would have on crop yield
• A widely variable U.S. crop
• Farm Futures reports today that wet corn (30%+) is being harvested in southern Illinois as early deliveries in search of the basis strength has begun.

Sept 4 graph

The above graph is based on daily market prices for 2013 soybeans (the crop about to be harvested):• The new crop (2013) Chatham Average Soybeans price is shown with the blue bars.
• The blue bars are the combination of the Nov. 2013 Soybean Futures shown by the red line and the Chatham Average Soybean Basis is shown by the black line.
• The Chatham Average Soybean Price and the Nov. 2013 Soybean Futures are read from the left hand axis.
• The Chatham Average Soybean Basis (black line) is read from the right hand axis.
• The sharp rise in the futures and the Chatham Average Price since the end of July has been driven in part by the reaction to the observed weather impacts on
the soybean crop during August and the concern for potentially tighter ending stocks than reported in the August WASDE report.
• One of the drivers of the basis is the value of the Canadian dollar. In January the dollar was about at par with the US Dollar and currently is about 95 cents compared to the US dollar.

Disclaimer: This commentary is provided for information only and is not intended as advice

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