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Posts Tagged ‘commodities’

Initial market reaction:  Bearish soybeans (especially new crop), bearish corn (especially old crop)

Corn

Actual                   Expected

US Ending stocks (2012/13)                          759                         754 million bushels

US Ending Stocks (2013/14)                         2.004                     1.97 billion bushels

Global Ending Stocks (2013/14)                  154.6*                   151.7 million tonnes

*13 year high

USDA average season price prediction of $4.30 to $5.10 per bushel

Soybeans

US Ending stocks (2013/14)                          .265                        .239 billion bushels

Global Ending stocks (2013/14)                  82.6                        70 million tonnes

USDA average season price prediction of $9.50 to $11.50 per bushel

Livestock futures have not changed direction since the open

Disclaimer: This commentary is provided for information only and is not intended as advice

Jennifer Stevenson

Manager (A) Sustainable Livestock Production Unit

Economic Development Division

Ontario Ministry of Agriculture and Food

Ontario Ministry of Rural Affairs

Tel: 519-826-3291

Email: Jennifer.stevenson@ontario.ca

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Global markets are largely unchanged overnight. Chinese manufacturing data for April came in weaker than expected, putting the commodities sector under pressure

Crops:
Crops are trading lower across the board, despite forecasts of snow over the next 3 days for the main planting region in the US. There was much debate in Twitter in #corn last night over whether current US Midwest weather conditions would affect US crop prices. The Hightower report speculated that yields would suffer, and are looking at December corn prices to show major support at $5.51 then move to $5.80 and $6.01. Kansas, Iowa and Illinois State Extension agree that the precipitation is adding much needed moisture to the subsoil, and are not immediately concerned that yields will be impacted.

Livestock:
According to Agriculture.com, hog prices increased yesterday to the highest level since August 2012 on speculation that demand – which is seeing higher than expected volumes now – will be driven to even higher levels this summer. The demand is reported to be led by China, where consumers have concerns on locally-raised pork.

MarketView is prepared by Jennifer Stevenson, Finance and Business Structures Program Lead, Ontario Ministry of Agriculture and Food

Disclaimer: This commentary is provided for information only and is not intended as advice.

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